2026 Report

The Deeptech Geopolitics Report 2026

The world is undergoing its biggest transformation in a century, with technology and geopolitics at its centre. This report maps the critical developments that matter in deeptech and geopolitics, for founders and investors navigating this shift.

What's Inside

  • AI: Frontier AI is now US statecraft. Washington restricts model diffusion and onshores fabs, while China scales open-weight models and domestic fabrication to bypass chokepoints
  • Robotics: Video and world models displace VLAs as the core abstraction for physical intelligence. China dominates the humanoid supply chain, US funding targets models, deployment lags hype
  • Defense: Hard power is back. US doctrine shifts to domestic security and nationalism, procurement reforms favour startups, and Europe accelerates defence sovereignty under direct threat
  • Manufacturing + Supply Chain: Global trade gives way to security-led industrial policy. Tariffs harden into leverage, reshoring exposes constraints, and AI supply chains become the strategic stack
  • Energy + Infrastructure: AI progress is power-constrained. Hyperscalers become de facto infrastructure players as the US builds AI factories and China doubles down on energy-led Belt and Road